It would cost £157bn for Liz Truss to meet her defence spending pledge, new analysis reveals

A Liz Truss government will likely need to grow the Armed Forces by more than 40,000 military personnel and spend an extra £157bn to meet a pledge to increase defence spending to 3% of national income by 2030, new analysis has revealed.The paper from a top think tank said such a boost in defence expenditure – from about 2% at present – would mark the biggest rise since the early 1950s, when the UK was concerned the Korean War might escalate into a wider conflict with the then Soviet Union.
Ms Truss committed to lifting defence spending to 3% by the end of the decade as part of her campaign to become the next Tory leader and prime minister.She had been setting out her plans to strengthen the UK’s ability to counter growing threats from Russia in the wake of its war in Ukraine, as well as an increasing challenge posed by China.That kind of level of new money, however, would effectively enable military chiefs to reverse swingeing cuts to the size of the army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force inflicted by the Conservative-led coalition government in 2010.
Professor Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director general of the Royal United Services Institute, who authored the analysis, said the first indication of whether a Truss administration is serious about hitting the 3% target will come at the next spending review, expected in November.She will need very quickly to act to reverse what will otherwise be a reduction in defence spending over the next two years because of the impact of soaring inflation, he wrote.

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Boosting the defence budget to 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) within eight years would equate to a 60% rise. The current annual budget sits at just over £50bn.Mr Chalmers said the new government – assuming Ms Truss defeats Rishi Sunak as expected in the race to replace Boris Johnson – will need to argue the case for increasing the amount of money it spends on defence at the time of a crippling cost of living crisis.

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Read more:UK armed forces lack ‘battle-winning capabilities’Army restructure sees hundreds of tanks and troops return to Germany – less than a year after withdrawalHe wrote that “there has been very little attempt to ready the British public for the sacrifices that will be needed for a similar level of increase for defence” as has already been required for the National Health Service.Using tax to cover the rise in defence spending would equate to a 5p in the pound increase in the standard and higher rates of income tax by the end of the decade, or an increase in the standard VAT rate from 20% to 25%.

Mr Chalmers said care will need to be taken to ensure any rush of new cash into military coffers – which have been raided repeatedly over decades – is spent well on new warships, aircraft, vehicles, other kit and more people.The Ministry of Defence has a dismal track record when it comes to procurement, with repeated reports by MPs and the national audit office over many years calling the department out over programmes that suffer cost-overruns, delays and some that are ultimately scrapped.”To spend 3% effectively, the defence budget will require a significant increase in the size of the frontline – numbers of formations and platforms,” the RUSI deputy director wrote.”An increase in service personnel numbers of 25% is likely to be needed to support an overall 60% increase of defence spending.”This would increase total numbers of regular personnel from 148,000 today to around 190,000 in 2030, returning to the level last seen in 2010.”