How good is the ‘Gladiator II’ movie? What betting markets predict about its success
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"Gladiator II" is hitting theaters in the U.S. on Friday, and traders are placing their bets on how well the sequel to the 2000 Hollywood blockbuster "Gladiator" might do at the box office and in the minds of viewers.
The new film held its world premiere in Australia on Oct. 30 and was released in the U.K. last week. As of Thursday evening, traders on offshore prediction platform PolyMarket gave the movie a 38% chance of hitting $60-$67 million in sales during its opening weekend.
A view of the step-and-repeat during the Los Angeles premiere of Paramount Pictures’ “Gladiator II” at TCL Chinese Theatre on November 18, 2024 in Hollywood, California.
If "Gladiator II" reaches $65 million in sales domestically, it would be the biggest opening ever for an R-Rated film in the month of November, according to SportsCasting.
Polymarket traders see a 22% chance of the film landing somewhere between $67-$75 million over the next three days, and the same chance of bringing in $53-$60 milllion. Only 10% are betting the movie will gross less than $53 million.
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Over on U.S.-based betting market Kalshi, traders are speculating on how well "Gladiator II" might perform on movie and TV review site Rotten Tomatoes based on its "Tomatometer" score.
View of signage during a “Gladiator II” x ComplexCon Advanced Screening at Regal Cinebarre Palace Station on November 16, 2024, in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Greg Doherty/Getty Images for Paramount Pictures / Getty Images)
The Tomatometer is determined based on the opinions of hundreds of critics, and a film is considered "Fresh" if it receives 60% or more positive reviews.
As of Thursday evening, "Gladiator II" had a Tomatometer score of 72%. Traders on Kalshi at that time saw a 91% chance the movie would retain a Tomatometer score above 70% by Monday, and a 44% chance the score would climb higher than 72%.
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There was only a 10% chance the film would top 75% on the Tomatometer after the weekend, which would designate it as "Certified Fresh."
"The Rotten Tomato markets are incredibly popular," Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told FOX Business' "The Claman Countdown" last week. "People love to forecast the success of a movie, and it looks like the new gladiator is gonna be incredibly successful, and people are betting on its success."
"Gladiator II" stars Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal, Denzel Washington, Connie Nielsen, Joseph Quinn, and Fred Hechinger.
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The original "Gladiator," which starred Russell Crowe, earned 12 Oscar nominations, and took home a total of five, including best picture, and best actor for Crowe.
Both films were directed by Ridley Scott.
