Matteo Messina Denaro: After the arrest of Italy’s most wanted criminal, what next for the mafia?

The arrest of a murderous mob boss who had been on the run for decades has prompted relief around Italy – while raising a pressing question: what becomes of the Mafia now?

Matteo Messina Denaro was detained on 16 January while he was at a hospital appointment, where he was getting treatment for cancer.

He had been on the run since 1993 and was jailed in absentia for murders he carried out in the early 1990s.

But with Messina Denaro now out of the picture, who is poised to take control of the Mafia?

Why was he important in the Mafia?

While Messina Denaro was Italy’s most wanted fugitive and the top boss in the Mafia, some experts say he did not control all the Mafia clans – in part because he was not from the Sicilian capital of Palermo.

Still, he was billed as the “last godfather” and was the last fugitive member of a generation of mobsters who masterminded a string of bombings and murders that terrorised Italy in the early 1990s.

The man who was once the “boss of all bosses”, Salvatore ‘Toto’ Riina, was arrested in 1993 and died in 2017. His right-hand man, Bernando Provenzano, was arrested in 2006 and died in 2016.

According to some experts, Cosa Nostra, as the Sicilian Mafia is known, has lacked a supreme leader for years, possibly since Riina – in part because the various clans struggled to convene and select one.

Historian John Dickie, who wrote the book Cosa Nostra: The Definitive History of the Sicilian Mafia, told Sky News the Mafia is broken up, suggesting it might struggle to find someone to lead the group of clans around Palermo.

He said the Mafia’s “hierarchy, its leadership structure, its whole territorial structure… has been hugely disrupted” since the early 1990s.

Police think the Mafia is on the hunt for a super-boss

But some investigators see the Sicilian Mafia as a “single-headed structure” – and believe it is searching for its new super-boss.

Speaking about the future of the Mafia shortly after Messina Denaro’s arrest, Palermo prosecutor general Lia Sava said: “What will happen in detail, we can’t know.

“But one thing is sure: Cosa Nostra is made up of rules. It has supported itself on these rules for 150 years, so certainly it will put into motion those rules to repair the damage, and thus create the new leadership structure needed after the arrest.”

Who could become top boss?

So, if the clans get around the table and elect a new head, who would be in the running?

According to many reports in Italy, 85-year-old Settimo Mineo is a frontrunner. Officially, he runs a jewellery shop in Palermo, but he is also considered one of the oldest heads of the Mafia, being named as successor to Riina following his death.

Mineo, like many Mafia members, is currently serving a lengthy jail sentence after being arrested on suspicion of being the Mafia’s top boss – but it is not unusual for leaders to run the business from behind bars.

Corriere della Sera, Italy’s leading newspaper, believes 64-year-old Giovanni Motisi – known to most as “The Fatman”, could be next in line.

He is the boss of the organisation’s Pagliarelli district in Palermo, and has been on the run since 1998 after being found guilty of murdering a police officer. Motisi was also believed to be Riina’s most trusted hitman.

He is one of the most wanted men in Italy, with some even saying he may be dead.

The daily paper also says Giuseppe Auteri, 48, the treasurer of the richest Mafia district in Palermo, is in the running.

Though a barrier for Auteri could be that he has been on the run for a year in the Sicilian underbelly.

Sandro Capizzi also has leadership ambitions in Sicily, according to Sky Tg24. The 41-year-old’s father, Benedetto, attempted to seize power in Cosa Nostra by force in 2008, but the pair were arrested by police who feared Sicily was on the brink of a new Mafia war.

But, the junior of the pair is free from prison and is said to be gunning for head honcho.

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So what’s next for the Cosa Nostra?

Despite its fame as a powerful and ruthless crime syndicate, the Mafia has been struggling for years.

In the lucrative drugs market, it has been supplanted by the ‘Ndrangheta, an organisation based in the Calabria region in southern Italy.

Though the Mafia does retain control of Sicily and some parts of the economy, Anna Sergi, an organised crime expert at Essex University, said: “Messina Denaro was the last godfather, he represented all the secrets of Cosa Nostra.

“It is the end of a myth and the organisation will have to cope with this.”