NHL Awards Watch: Matthews vs. Shesterkin for MVP
The last month of the 2021-22 NHL regular season brings the final edition of the NHL Awards Watch, as we’re days away from ballots being sent out to voters.
While there are established front-runners for each of these awards, the next few weeks are still critical for determining the winners, as voters sometimes can’t resist the siren’s song of recency bias.
Welcome to the NHL Awards Watch for April. We’ve polled a wide selection of Professional Hockey Writers Association voters anonymously to get a sense of where the wind is blowing for the current leaders. We’ve made sure it’s a cross-section from the entire league, trying to gain as many perspectives as possible.
Bear in mind that the PHWA votes for the Hart, Norris, Calder, Selke and Lady Byng; broadcasters vote for the Jack Adams; and general managers handle the Vezina. Also keep in mind the unofficial “you gotta be in it to win it” protocol for the Hart and the Jack Adams.
All stats are from Hockey-Reference.com, Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey, and are as of the games of April 6.
Jump ahead:
Ross | Richard | Hart
Norris | Selke | Vezina
Calder | Byng | Adams
Art Ross Trophy (points leader)
Current leader: Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers (108 points)
Watch out for: Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida Panthers (102 points)
Sleeper: Johnny Gaudreau, Calgary Flames (99 points)
Maurice ‘Rocket’ Richard Trophy (leading goal scorer)
Current leader: Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs (56 goals)
Watch out for: Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers (50 goals)
Sleeper: Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals (43 goals)
Hart Trophy (MVP)
Leader: Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs
Finalists: Jonathan Huberdeau, LW, Florida Panthers; Igor Shesterkin, G, New York Rangers
If the Hart Trophy race was an actual marathon, Matthews would be steps away from breaking the tape … while looking over his shoulder at Shesterkin closing fast.
Don’t get it twisted: Matthews is still the heavy favorite to win his first Hart Trophy as NHL most valuable player. He leads the NHL with 56 goals. He had a stretch of 47 goals in 47 games, and 71 goals in 82 games. Matthews was the Leafs’ offensive engine when linemate Mitch Marner was limited to nine games in December 2021 through the first month of 2022. Marner has narrowed the gap for team scoring lead, but Matthews still owns it with 95 points.
Through 64 games, Matthews led the NHL with 28.1 goals scored above average and added five wins to the Maple Leafs. His ascension as a dominant goal scorer has coincided with becoming one of the better two-way centers in the NHL — 2.05 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, through his first 64 games.
Matthews appeared atop 56% of the ballots we surveyed. He was second to Connor McDavid for the Hart last season. The voters appear enthusiastic to give No. 34 his first MVP crown.
Unless they decide to give it to the best goalie in the league instead.
“I don’t think the Rangers are actually that good. He’s a true MVP in that he’s carrying his team,” said one voter on Shesterkin.
Matthews had a substantial advantage in the voting over Shesterkin in last month’s Awards Watch. That gap has closed. The Rangers goalie was the top choice on 26% of the ballots, the clear second choice.
“It’s a two-horse race for me: Shesterkin vs. Matthews. Matthews has the edge in consistency right now,” said one voter.
His rise in the Hart Trophy rankings comes as the Rangers goalie has had his roughest stretch of the season. Last month, his save percentage hovered around .942, and it looked very much like Shesterkin might post the second highest save percentage in NHL history — for goalies with at least 40 games played — behind Toronto’s Hockey Hall of Famer Jacques Plante in 1970-71 (.944). Through 46 games, Shesterkin’s save percentage dropped to .933, which is still a stat that most goalies would two-hand chop their best friend to earn.
“I will say his stock has dropped recently, but we cannot let recency bias affect our perception of how downright sick he’s been this season. We’re looking at a potentially historic outcome,” said one voter.
Incidentally, Carey Price also had a .933 save percentage when the Montreal Canadiens goalie won the Hart Trophy in 2014-15. He played in 80% of his team’s games that season. Montreal’s Jose Theodore won the Hart in 2001-02 by appearing in 82% of the Habs’ games. Dominik Hasek won the award twice for the Buffalo Sabres: In 1996-97 (82%) and in 1997-98, in which he appeared in 89% of their games!
Shesterkin had only appeared in 65% of the Rangers’ first 71 games. Through Tuesday, there were 13 goalies who appeared in more games than had Shesterkin. He doesn’t control his usage. He’s playing in an era where seeing a goalie playing 80% of their team’s games is like seeing a unicorn riding the Loch Ness Monster. But that context might not be enough, given the precedents for previous goalie MVP winners — and given what Matthews is doing.
“I’ve always been a big believer in the idea that goalies deserve more consideration for the Hart Trophy. It’s the most important position in sports, save for maybe quarterback. So I’ve been on the Shesterkin bandwagon all year,” said one voter. “But what Matthews is doing is becoming impossible to ignore.”
While a few other players received first-place votes, Huberdeau was the clear third choice with around 13% of the votes. He’s had an incredible season: Setting an NHL record for assists by a left wing, setting a Panthers team record by becoming the first player in franchise history to surpass 100 points. He has close to 30 points more than the next leading scorer on the Panthers, who could end up the top team in the East. If there’s a knock on him, it’s that he’s far from the two-way player that Matthews has been this season. But he’s got a strong MVP case.
Other players that received votes: Minnesota Wild forward Kirill Kaprizov and Nashville Predators defenseman Roman Josi.
“The drop-off in terms of impactful players on the Wild’s roster after Kaprizov is considerable,” said one voter.
Among the players that didn’t receive first-place votes: Edmonton Oilers stars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, which was a surprise and should fuel even more think-pieces about the unfairness of these teammates seemingly having canceled each other out. (And, in turn, questions about why that hasn’t happened with Matthews regarding Marner, considering they play together way more frequently than do the Oilers teammates.) Also missing the cut: Calgary Flames forward Johnny Gaudreau, although one voter called him out as an “honorable mention”; and Washington Capitals star Alex Ovechkin, who has 20 more goals than anyone on his team but more baggage, too.
“It’s Auston Matthews as of this moment. But some days, it’s still either one of two guys in Edmonton,” said one voter. “I will not vote for Ovechkin, I can tell you that. For moral reasons.”
Norris Trophy (top defenseman)
Leader: Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
Finalists: Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning; Roman Josi, Nashville Predators
The Norris Trophy has a funny way of becoming a preordained coronation for a defenseman that has yet to win the award — as long as they hold up their end of the bargain. It was Drew Doughty‘s turn in 2015-16, so he won the Norris. It was supposed to be Mark Giordano‘s turn a few times, but he kept getting injured and then slumped offensively. He earned 165 first-place votes the year he finally won the award. It was supposed to be Alex Pietrangelo‘s year after the St. Louis Blues won the Cup in 2019, but he only managed fourth place after a good but not great 2019-20 season.
From the moment he finished second for the award last season, this has been Makar’s Norris to lose. He’s done nothing to squander the chance. He had 74 points in 66 games for a 1.14 points per game average, the highest of his career. He led all defensemen with 24 goals. He’s a plus-40, for whatever that’s worth. He had 19.7 goals scored above average through 66 games, adding 3.5 wins to the Avalanche.
Like any good offensive defenseman, there has been a perception that Makar is more the former than the latter. But he has solid on-ice defensive metrics, no doubt benefitting from playing the majority of his time this season with Devon Toews, the team’s best defender. Makar earned 56% of the first-place votes on our ballots. He’s got inside track. Josi has the history. Keep in mind that Josi has a Norris Trophy win in 2019-20, while Makar would be a first-time winner. That’s a factor, for sure.
The Predators defenseman, the leading scorer among NHL defensemen this season, was the clear second choice with 30% of the first-place votes. His 1.25 points-per-game average would be the highest in an 82-game season since Boston Bruins Hall of Famer Ray Bourque posted a 1.26 points-per-game average in 1993-94. He leads the Predators in scoring by double digits. And 51 of his first 84 points were scored at even strength. The idea that Makar could be the Norris favorite, yet get overshadowed offensively by a rival, underscores how extraordinary this season has been for Josi.
“The only player seemingly holding Nashville above water,” said one voter.
But there are differences between the two Norris Trophy cases. Both players eat up a ton of ice time, with Josi averaging 25:17 and Makar averaging 25:39. But Makar plays more shorthanded (1:24 per game) than does Josi (0:46).
“It’s a two-horse race between Makar and Roman Josi. I give Makar the edge because he kills penalties more often,” said one voter.
There’s a significant gap in quality of competition, as Josi’s pairings haven’t played the Predators’ toughest opponents — those honors go to Mattias Ekholm — while Makar’s have. Josi doesn’t have the defensive metrics that Makar does this season, even he’s the superior offensive player. But again, Josi has had Dante Fabbro and Alexandre Carrier as partners this season, while Makar has had Toews for the majority of the season.
It appears to be a two-player race for the Norris as the ballots go out. Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman, who was the leader earlier this season, earned just under 10% of the first-place votes. This would be Hedman’s sixth straight finalist nomination for the Norris, which is something none of his contemporaries — Drew Doughty, Duncan Keith, Erik Karlsson — accomplished. He’s seeking to win his first Norris Trophy since 2017-18.
The only other player to earn a first-place vote was Florida Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad, who has never finished in the top 10 of the Norris voting.
“He’s my vote for now, but by season’s end, he’ll probably have missed too many games for me to vote for him,” said one voter of Ekblad, who has been limited to 61 games this season.
Calder Trophy (top rookie)
Leader: Moritz Seider, D, Detroit Red Wings
Finalists: Lucas Raymond, LW, Detroit Red Wings; Trevor Zegras, C, Anaheim Ducks
The term “Mo-mentum” seems appropriate here.
The Red Wings rookie has to be considered the heavy favorite to win the Calder, as he topped a whopping 70% of the ballots we surveyed.
That’s a bit incredible when one thinks back to the beginning of the season, when Montreal Canadiens forward Cole Caufield and Florida Panthers goalie Spencer Knight were Calder picks and Seider didn’t warrant a mention. After the offensive fireworks provided by defensemen like Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes in their rookie campaigns, the notion that a defender averaging just 0.64 points could wire the field for the Calder is stunning.
But Seider is seen as a complete defender for Detroit. He skates 23:07 per game on average and plays in all situations. His 40 points in 70 games was a bit more offense than the Red Wings expected. They would have been satisfied with a 21-year-old playing above average defense in a rookie season that’s — somewhat inexplicably — captured a majority of support from voters.
It’s not often that slow and steady wins the Calder. It usually goes to a rockstar like Zegras, whose lacrosse goals and over-the-net pass made him the NHL’s human highlight reel this season. His 50 points in 64 games is a solid total that should land him in the top three rookie scorers by season’s end. If he somehow pulled out the rookie scoring title, it could make things interesting.
“Haven’t seen quite enough yet from anyone else to pry this from Seider. But there’s still time,” said one voter.
Zegras has made an undeniable impact on the Ducks, essentially infusing the team with his jovial spirit. But the Calder is usually more about stats than vibes.
The only other player that received a first-place vote was Raymond, who was 19 years old for most of the season and earned his top-line minutes with the Red Wings. He had 53 points in his first 70 games, including 17 of them on the power play.
Absent from the ballots is the current leader in NHL rookie scoring: Michael Bunting of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
“Even strength vs. power-play time makes what Bunting is doing impressive, though I think Seider being a D-man on a bad team certainly boosts him,” said one voter.
Maybe because the voters just see Bunting as a product of Matthews and Marner, probably because he’s 26 years old.
“Bunting, Raymond and Zegras are all having fine seasons but Seider has the extra burden of being a No. 1 defenseman and has met that challenge well,” said one voter.
Vezina Trophy (top goaltender)
Note: General managers vote for this award.
Leader: Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers
Finalists: Frederik Andersen, Carolina Hurricanes; Jacob Markstrom, Calgary Flames
The headline here: It was not unanimous for Igor Shesterkin.
It was just nearly unanimous.
“Just engrave the trophy now,” said one voter.
Shesterkin was the voters’ choice in 91% of the ballots we surveyed. Even with a late-season “slump,” he’s 32-10-4 with a league-best .933 save percentage. He led the NHL with 44.4 goals saved above average in 46 games. And he’s credited with doing more for the Rangers than either of the other goalie finalists have done to elevate their teams.
“He’s not Dominik Hasek, but like the Dominator, he’s making a seemingly average team into one that’s really, really good,” said one voter.
Andersen and Markstrom were the only other goalies to receive first-place votes. Andersen has an interesting case, actually: The gap in goals saved above average between himself (39.5) and Shesterkin has narrowed considerably during the season. He’s second in save percentage (.926). Of course, if shutouts are your thing, then Markstrom might be your guy with nine of them on the season.
Selke Trophy (best defensive forward)
Leader: Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins
Finalists: Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers; Elias Lindholm, Calgary Flames
As usual, the Selke Trophy voting shows the widest range of variance. But in the end, all roads lead back to Mr. Bergeron.
The Bruins center finished first on 52% of the ballots we surveyed. Bergeron is seeking his fifth Selke win, which would break a tie with Bob Gainey and set a new NHL record. He’s doing the Patrice Bergeron thing again this season: 1.47 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, winning 62.4% of his faceoffs and watching as the Bruins’ goalies have a .930 save percentage when he’s on the ice.
“Die and be a hero or live long enough to see yourself vote for Patrice Bergeron for the Frank J. Selke trophy,” said one voter.
Bergeron has 10 straight Selke Trophy nominations, itself an NHL record. In other words, this can be a reputation-based award. Case in point: Panthers center Barkov, last year’s Selke winner, was the clear second choice. He was named as the Selke winner on 17% of the ballots we surveyed. If we sound surprised, it’s because this hasn’t been a typical defensive campaign for Barkov. For example, he won the award with a 1.98 expected goals against per 60 minutes; this season, he’s averaging 2.48 expected goals against per 60 minutes. But the afterglow of last year’s win has made voters warm to him this season.
Speaking of reputation: The next most popular choice was Ryan O’Reilly of the St. Louis Blues, named first on 13% of ballots, who won the Selke in 2019. He’s had better defensive seasons than this one, but he’s also seeing tougher opponents than most. Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic had him 8th in his latest Selke numbers crunch, while Barkov didn’t make the top 10.
The other two players to garner first-place votes were Anze Kopitar of the Los Angeles Kings — another previous Selke winner — and Anthony Cirelli of the Tampa Bay Lightning.
“The better Los Angeles looks, the more you realize what a driver Kopitar has been,” said one voter.
Curiously absent: Any members of the Flames, like Mikael Backlund and Lindholm, although the latter earned some honorable mentions, and any members of the Minnesota Wild, like Marcus Foligno and Joel Eriksson Ek. These are two of the best defensive teams in the NHL, whose players deserve a little more Selke love.
Lady Byng Trophy (gentlemanly play)
This is the part where I mention that the Lady Byng Trophy for gentlemanly play should be voted on by the league’s on-ice officials or by the National Hockey League Players’ Association. Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Jaccob Slavin won the award last season, and we’d like to see the trend of blueliners winning it continue.
Dallas Stars defenseman Esa Lindell plays 22:21 per game and still has just six penalty minutes. But watch out! Slavin is right there too with just 10 penalty minutes, trying to become the first repeat Lady Byng winner. Exciting!
Jack Adams Award (best coach)
Note: The NHL Broadcasters’ Association votes on this award.
Leader: Darryl Sutter, Calgary Flames
Finalists: Andrew Brunette, Florida Panthers; Dean Evason, Minnesota Wild; Todd McLellan, Los Angeles Kings
Sutter was the top choice on 39% of the ballots we surveyed, as he’s helped turn the Flames into one of the NHL’s best offensive and defensive teams since taking over during last season. Plus, the broadcasters vote for this award, and Sutter is pretty great for a quote:
After that, it gets interesting, with three other coaches listed here each getting around 9% of the first-place votes.
“[Brunette] took over the Panthers under bad circumstances and kept the ship on course despite no previous head coaching experience at any level,” said one voter.
“I’ve been on the Darryl Sutter train most of this season. But what Todd McLellan is doing in L.A. just feels like he’s creating so much more with less than Sutter is,” said another voter.
As for Evason, he’s put together two strong seasons with the Wild among the league’s best goal-scoring teams and — analytically — one of its better defensive teams.
Other coaches receiving first-place votes included Rod Brind’Amour of the Carolina Hurricanes, Gerard Gallant of the New York Rangers, Jared Bednar of the Colorado Avalanche, Mike Sullivan of the Pittsburgh Penguins and Bruce Cassidy of the Boston Bruins.
