Four burning questions that could define the 2022 College Football Playoff
When Georgia concludes spring football practices on April 16 with its annual G-Day game, the Bulldogs will unveil a lineup that has lost more starters from last year’s historic national title team (14) than it returns (13). Gone are defensive linemen Jordan Davis and Devonte Wyatt, who anchored the best defense in the country, and linebacker Nakobe Dean. Gone is defensive coordinator Dan Lanning, who is now the head coach at Oregon — which happens to be Georgia’s first opponent of 2022.
The Bulldogs, though, return quarterback Stetson Bennett, who went 11-1 last year as the starter. Linebacker Nolan Smith returns, along with defensive back Kelee Ringo, who had the game-clinching 79-yard interception return for a touchdown in the College Football Playoff National Championship game against Alabama.
For those wondering if Georgia can defend its first national title in 42 years, coach Kirby Smart isn’t taking the bait.
“You don’t defend a title,” he told reporters in March. “… We start completely new. That’s so hard for the media to grasp. It’s not hard for us because we go into a different part of the program, offseason conditioning program. What’s different about the offseason conditioning program than it has been in the past? Not a whole lot. We’re doing the same things we do to build up to the point we went to last year.
“We have holes to fill just like we do every year. Probably just more this year than in years past based on guys leaving and the departure. We also have more mid-years here to fill some of those roles. We’re certainly not deep enough at several positions, but I’m not here to cry about it. I’m here to solve it and figure it out and get the best guys.”
And, of course, try to win another national title.
Whether or not there’s another team in the SEC besides Alabama that can challenge Georgia is one of the four biggest playoff questions entering this season. And no, it’s not too early — after all, spring practices are the first step toward answering them.
1. Is there another CFP contender in the SEC besides Alabama and Georgia?
Eh, believe it when you see it. Texas A&M, Arkansas and Ole Miss are the most realistic options, but they’re also all stuck in the West Division with the Tide. The Aggies and Arkansas will settle it first when they face each other on Sept. 24 in the Southwest Classic at AT&T Stadium. To be taken seriously in the CFP, the Aggies will need to beat Arkansas and go 4-0 in September because October is going to be brutal with three straight road trips to Mississippi State, Alabama and South Carolina.
Texas A&M seems to face perpetual hype, but it has to determine a starting quarterback and rebuild its defense. Arkansas coach Sam Pittman seems to be ahead of schedule, finishing 9-4 in his second season — two more wins than the program had in the previous three years combined. Like the Aggies, though, the Razorbacks have to rebuild on defense, particularly up front. Ole Miss has more questions on offense — including replacing quarterback Matt Corral — but the defense simply has to be better if it’s going to be a true contender in the West. The Rebels’ defense ranked 51st or worse in the FBS in nearly every major statistical category, including No. 51 in points allowed per game (24.7), No. 90 in yards per carry (4.49), No. 97 in yards per game (419.5), and No. 104 in rushing yards per game (189.5). They were also 129th in first downs allowed per game with 24.9.
2. Can the Pac-12 return to the playoff?
There’s certainly reason for hope, and it begins with Utah and USC. The problem is, they play each other on Oct. 15. The Pac-12’s playoff chase has to start on Week 1, though, because a loss at Florida will put Utah in a must-win situation for the rest of the season.
USC’s hire of Lincoln Riley and the acquisition of quarterback Caleb Williams was an instant upgrade for the entire conference. Defending Pac-12 champion Utah, though, should be the conference favorite. The Utes have the players in place to build upon last year’s 8-1 conference record that included two wins against Oregon.
“We have had an obvious absence in the playoff for several years now as a league,” Utah coach Kyle Whittingham recently told ESPN. “I don’t believe that we feel any pressure or onus as a program to be the team that does it. We’re just trying to be the best team we can be. You can’t get in the playoff unless you’re able to take care of business within your own conference. Our goal each year is to try to win the Pac-12. If we can get things beyond that, that’s great. I don’t think we’re putting any extra expectations or pressure on our guys.”
There is plenty of outside pressure already on USC, which has a realistic chance to be 6-0 heading into the Utah game. If the Trojans can pick up a road win against what would likely be the Pac-12’s highest-ranked team, it would impress the committee and could position itself as the league’s best hope as a playoff contender.
Of course, the Pac-12’s chances will increase exponentially if Notre Dame and the ACC are both eliminated. USC could play the role of spoiler by knocking the Irish out in the Nov. 26 regular-season finale. Or, Notre Dame could be in a position to eliminate the Pac-12.
3. Is Clemson‘s reign in the ACC over?
Clemson has won the ACC title in seven of the past 11 years, and it has been a mainstay in the CFP semifinals, with last year being the anomaly.
Unless … that was the start of a trend.
On paper, Clemson doesn’t resemble anything from its past CFP-era dominance. Former defensive coordinator Brent Venables is now the head coach at Oklahoma, and former offensive coordinator Tony Elliott is the head coach at Virginia. Coach Dabo Swinney built his program into a national title contender by surrounding himself with elite assistants. Whether he did it again remains to be seen, as he promoted relatively unknown names from within, elevating Wes Goodwin to defensive coordinator and Brandon Streeter to offensive playcaller.
In addition to the unprecedented staff turnover, Clemson experienced a noticeable drop-off at the quarterback position, as D.J. Uiagalelei threw more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (nine) in his first full season as starter. If Clemson is going to regain its grip on the ACC title, it needs better, more consistent quarterback play, improvement on the offensive line, and some playmakers to emerge at wide receiver. Clemson’s inability to produce explosive passing plays was evident last fall.
Meanwhile, NC State, Pitt, Wake Forest — and now Miami — are no longer gimme games for the Tigers. With nonconference games against Furman, Louisiana Tech and rival South Carolina, Clemson has to take advantage of its Nov. 5 trip to Notre Dame to impress the selection committee with a win against what should be its highest-ranked (and maybe only) nonconference opponent.
Before Clemson returns to the playoff conversation, though, it has to reassert itself in its own conference.
4. Which team will emerge as the Big Ten’s best?
The Game should answer that again — unless Michigan State has something to say about it. Until proved otherwise, though, it starts with Ohio State and Michigan. The Wolverines are trying to build upon last year’s breakthrough season, which included a win against the Buckeyes for the first time in a decade, the school’s first Big Ten title since 2004 and its first appearance in the CFP.
As if 2021 wasn’t enough of a statement, coach Jim Harbaugh called the Wolverines “scary good” heading into spring ball. There’s plenty of offensive talent returning, including quarterback Cade McNamara, and Harbaugh has expressed confidence in the players returning on defense who will need to accelerate their learning curve.
Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State all have something to prove on defense. The Spartans’ pass defense was dreadful last year, ranking 130th in pass yards allowed per game. Michigan’s defense has to replace standout defensive ends Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo, and the Wolverines will be led by first-year defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. Ohio State’s defense seemingly was upgraded with the hire of former Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, but he has significant improvements to make. The Buckeyes’ defense had uncharacteristic struggles last year, ranking 45th or worse in total yards, passing yards, and yards per play allowed.
What might separate Ohio State from the others is quarterback C.J. Stroud, a Heisman finalist who should lead an explosive offensive again, this time featuring running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who racked up 347 yards and three touchdowns in the Rose Bowl win against Utah. The Buckeyes’ biggest challenge might be their schedule, which opens Sept. 3 against Notre Dame and includes crossover games against Wisconsin and Iowa.